Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Slipping on Crude

Took a loss today on Crude Oil APR09 futs today.

As always, there's the instinct to take profits early than the plan dictates. I resisted and so allowed 10 points in my favour to turn into a 12 point loss.

Looking back at the chart 45mins after the trade, it's obvious that I've been wicked out. I had decided on 10 points of risk before hand...perhaps I underestimated the volatility on this contract, having never traded it before? Or maybe I was too eager to make money and too scared to lose too much? (had targets in my mind which is always a bad thing). Maybe it's the blood they took at the hospital this morning! lol. Whatever the case, it was almost as if I needed to lose some money to balance out the fear and greed demons. Now I've been reminded that the equity curve can't just shoot straight up without any pullbacks...much like any chart of any financial instrument.

Incidentally, the chart of my own equity curve suggested that I might be in for a pullback...Had a strong upside move (ie long green candles) followed by a series of smaller wins (they'd be the smaller real-bodied candles) This meant that the Pace had slowed...resistance is account equity highs.

PS I did take a trade in JPY/USD March09 futs yesterday, which I forgot to post at the 4 pips out of it...

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