Sunday, January 1, 2017

Process - Oriented (January Game Plan).

After ruminating over the info in my last post, the main things that have changed are:-

a) Desire to "win" in the short-term. I've gradually slipped into the habit of taking trades off before 3R for no reason other than fear of giving back.

b) Lower trade frequency. This is most probably an attempt to "manage" risk when it's really just an avoidance of risk.

c) Not putting on two (or more) trades simultaneously. See "b)".

So here are the renewed rules of conduct. I'm writing them in this post to keep me accountable!

1) Never take a trade off for less than 3R unless:

* There is news, in which case take it off 5 mins beforehand and get back in according to the plan.
* Daily target has been met in open profits.
* It's 21:00 or later (see "3)").

2) Make a conscious effort to have at least two positions on as often as possible to diversify risk/smooth out the equity curve.

3) No trades entered after 20:00. Flatten all trades between 21:00 and 22:10 (all times in Central European Time).

That's it! If I do that for every trade in January, I'll be a happy trader, regardless of the result. Back to the process we go...

Saturday, December 31, 2016

Personal Account + 100% Resistance = Sideways P&L.

Time to reassess and come up with a plan of attack.

The above is the rolling P&L since mid June '16. A few things that leap off the chart...

1) ~340 trades over the first 4+ months. ~70 trades in the following ~2 months. Last two months have a trade frequency of ~40% of the prior months.

2) Last two months- starting from the black arrow- have resulted in an 20+% range. The black arrow also indicates the start of live trading in my personal account.

3) The high of the above range is an 100% return based on $3K/contract over a few instruments with a per trade risk of ~1.6-2.2% (depending on the instrument).

4) Headline stats before last two months of trading: WR=34%, RR=2.319, E= 0.1489.

5) Headline stats for the last two months of trading: WR=36%, RR=1.824, E= 0.0196.

6) 8 target days (+10%) before last two months of trading.

7) 0 target days for the last two months of trading.

8) 46 trades >= 3R before last two months.

9) 7 trades >= 3R for the last two months...

Going to sleep on this post and return with an analysis of what has changed along with a plan of attack to get back on track!