Thursday, May 21, 2009

GBP USD- 12:01ET....Time To Think

What I'm doing isn't working for me anymore. A large part of that is emotional- how much is hard to tell as the system has a degree of discretion which can easily be affected by rampant emotions. Perhaps the market isn't favourable for this edge right now??

Whatever the mix, I need to have a think as to the next step as I'm not comfortable bleeding away anymore money. Managed to string together some 11 losses in a row, small size so the damage isn't bad but, all the same, serious food for thought.

One tiny consolation is many of the losses were stopped to the tick before reaching targets, others had the right idea but were just mis-timed....missed trades would have ended that losing streak too.

The difference between wild success and absolute failure is small....


Wednesday, May 20, 2009

EUR USD- 07:42ET

Playing off the same resistance shown in the larger timeframe of yesterday's last trade.

Not liking the way my orders are being filled at the moment! Slippage in a market that's turning your way is usually rare (at least with the futures market) not sure spot forex will be able to work long term with what I'm attempting to do.

Friday, May 15, 2009

NQ 10:37ET

Decent trade but kept the stop slightly too tight. 4 tick loss....

My priority right now is avoiding trigger lock so I can get used to seeing my equity moving, regardless of direction. Making money can come second until I'm completely free to follow through on trades.

AUD USD- 07:35ET

6 pip gain with a 10 pip stop. Multiple entries on this one too but I took just the one.

Need to set the stop where it belongs with the appropriate size or will eventually get myself into trouble.

EUR USD- 05:39ET-Bad Trade

4.7 pip gain on a 10 pip stop.

Missed the first entry in the sequence. That influenced my decisions in the second entry...good entry slightly too wide with the stop, taking the size of a 10 pip stop but immediately trailing it up to 8. The error came in trying to take gains according to ratios between 1) My entry and stop and 2) unrealized profits rather than my entry and suitable stop for the setup-which hit the target as it regularly does- vs unrealized profits.

So really should have been taking gains as the momentum slowed rather than waiting for the market to excuse my poor size management and give me more than my risk.

One positive is that I didn't wait in the hope that it'd continue (which it did, but the outcome is irrelevant..)

Thursday, May 14, 2009

AUD JPY- 12:13ET. Objectives.

8.5 pip gain with a 15 pip stop.

Still not quite maximizing my potential for nailing those entries compared to my usual margin of error. I know when this happens I need to take profits as if I had entered at highs/lows, which I did on this trade.

One thing which I've noticed myself doing is position sizing according to a certain stop and then using a tighter stop- not a bad thing if the reason is genuinely based on the chart. In this particular trade, I'm not sure that was the could just be my subconscious telling me that I'm trading with too much risk.

May need to drop back to last week's level of risk for next week's trading.

GBP AUD-06:28ET.

Not a bad trade. One area for improvement is agility- being able to scratch/take less than the target with a view to getting back in for the "real" move. This needs absolute objectivity...the two polar forces of fear and greed need to be kept in check.

I've learnt that a good trade (for me) is never succumbing to feelings of hope, regret or the aforementioned emotions. I call that being at the mercy of the market which is basically being at the mercy of yourself. I allowed this during part of the trade where the market made it's first attempt at the stronger move that was likely to follow. It ran out of momentum and I refused to exit and reposition myself at my original entry knowing full well that it could take out my stop and had to hope for those few seconds. After that, I took control of the situation again and exited at my target zone.

A combination of spread and less than optimal entry meant I gained less than I should have on this move.

21 pips gain with a 20 pip stop

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

GBP CAD- 11:04ET

Either I'm not working (probable) or the edge isn't working (possible) either way, have to reduce the damage and call it a day...

Slippage is a concern too. 3.4 pips on this one for a 23.4 pip loss

GBP USD- 08:33ET & AUD CHF- 09:26ET

1 1/2 pips of slippage on the first one for an 11 pip loss....AUD CHF had a 9.2 pip gain with a 15.8 pip max stop.

Feel an element of discipline returning once again. Pleased with the way I followed the chart not my P n L.

We'll see.

GBP AUD- 03:41ET Emotional Trading Once Again

You can be so right yet painfully wrong. Stopped to the tick again! Target was then hit with the solid move up that I was looking for. Had my opportunity to exit with a smaller loss/scratch but didn't take it.

When completely objective, I'd have opted to cut my loss shorter than my maximum stop (as I've done at least once last week). When there's emotions clouding my judgement, I let the stop protect me. However, lately, my stops have been taken out literally at highs/lows before price often shoots off in my direction. I can almost feel that I'm one of the stuck shorts/longs and it's clear my position is being covered at the extreme of panic/fear.

Extremely frustrated. I've become part of the crowd!

The reason is clear too- the increase in risk. Still going to finish the week at this level though.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

AUD CAD- 10:02ET

Good setup but got wicked out with slippage, leaving me behind at the highs of the day....

Can feel that the increased size has influenced my ability to stay with the charts. But I'm going to see the week out and then analyse.

stopped for 21.1 pips

Also made an order entry error and had too much size...great stuff!

GBP USD- 05:11ET-Beginnings, Middles & Endings

22.3 pip gain with a 20 pip stop....little late on the entry which meant the stop was slightly too tight. Price moved approx. 75% into my stop before turning around.

Having a difficult time taking those entries that spin off from the initial entry. I view any potential loss as a waste of money rather than a business cost (which is how I view the initial entry)...I've seen the setup hundreds of times (drawn in yellow on the hourly) but I'm going to have to forward test it with reduced risk/ paper trade it to instill confidence in myself.

But there's one more issue.

I have this crazy bias against losing money in an instrument that I've just made money in. I think the problem stems from the abitrary use of the word "Just" and my feelings towards my account equity fluctuating between "positive" and "negative"- all subjective ways to measure progress. I've read my previous post on the subject to try to remind myself that there's no up or down until we choose to focus on something and use that as our reference point

Monday, May 11, 2009

GBP CHF- 09:22ET

Routine trade. 21.7 pip loss 2 of those due to slippage...

EUR USD- 08:22ET. Bad Start.

Not happy with this trade. I have increased my size slightly to see if I can continue to maintain the same discipline and, already, It would seem I've been influenced by the change. Got out with a 3.7 pip gain using a 10 pip target was 10-11 pips....

I made two errors of this kind last week (along with two technical analysis based errors)...won't read too much into this mistake until I've taken a few more trades.

Got to keep focus on the process not on the money.