Thursday, February 5, 2009

Fear Of The Futures?

Been awhile since I took a futures trade and realized that, perhaps, I'm scared of success. The more I succeed, the more I tend to worry about reversing that success. So I've made a deal with myself to reset the counter (in my head) to zero so I have a new beginning (by taking profits out of the account after achieving certain equity levels). Of course, this doesn't protect my account directly as I'm still exposed to risk but it allows me to build confidence by periodically "locking in success"- boxing off the past so I can go forward without the worry of reversing that success. Thanks goes to Brett Steenbarger for this idea (if I remember correctly!)

Took one early morning (for me...19:00ET ish) in the ES but scratched it as I wasn't ready to leave orders in and go to bed. Had I have done so, my target would have been met...oh well :)

Better fortune with the 2nd trade. GBP just before 06:00ET. Got in early with one contract at 1.45410 before the price shot up and stalled right at the highs of the trendline...waited a few seconds then added another contract as the GBP has less risk per tick than the EUR/USD futs contract. I did this knowing that, should the price exceed those 1.45560 highs by more than a couple ticks, I'd be out. I pretty much immediately got confirmation as the sellers quickly stepped in and the trend changed. Lightened up pretty quickly by covering 1 contract which allowed me to ride the trend down to the whole number support...tightened stops after seeing a shift in downside momentum exiting the last contract at 1.45090 to take 46 points.

I've noticed that the appearance of the momo is cyclical...there's been somewhat of a draught in the past few days but I feel that we're coming round to another fruitful period. Of course we won't know until after the fact....

No comments: