As I suspected in my last post, the winning streak has been followed by a losing streak.
If we define "draw down" as the peak-to-trough decline in equity after the peak has been surpassed by new equity highs, then this incomplete draw down is currently the second smallest of the six that stand out on the chart (because there is a very large number of DDs if you look at every decline followed by new highs compared to the previous peak...intra-day, intra-trade etc etc). So nothing to become alarmed about there.
It is, however, joint 1st place for steepest DD among the 6 on record. It was preceded by the largest winning streak on record. Emotionally-driven variance.
Luckily, I think I have the solution :)
"Borrowing & Lending VS Ownership."
"Fear Of The Future?"
The key paragraphs are the 1st and 2nd in the first post and the 1st in the second post. I've used these concepts before whenever the need arose. Eventually, I'd like to grow out of them but I'm more than happy to use it if it betters the bottom line!
The "glass ceiling of profit" comes at an arbitrary point whereby you're no longer trading to trade well, you're trading not to lose. This inevitably blunts your edge due to the cognitive bias "loss aversion" and, well, you lose!
The above idea ties in with the fear of reversing success obtained or gains accrued. The solution is simple: start at the beginning. Beginning of the next day, week....beginning of the account.... As long as it's a new chapter in your mind. Of course, this assumes you know yourself well enough- and you are honest enough with yourself- to be able to identify, in real time, when you switch from plain trading to trading not to lose recently acquired gains.
Logically, we should just be able to trade without these arbitrary points of reference as a loss is a loss regardless of when/where it occurs. But, for most, that isn't the case. So why not just work solutions around our biases rather than try to eliminate them?
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
End Of Winning Streak
Had to come sooner or later! What's most important is how I conduct myself- win, lose or draw- in the coming trades as this is where traders sometimes run into trouble.
As covered on the above charts, I basically waited for a confirmation of a lower time-frame setup on a weaker larger time-frame setup (see hourly for why I thought it was weak).
This time I was the one who got trapped as the following price action pivoted nicely off of the two ZoA before breaking above the important 560 area.
The trade was within my trade plan guidelines. The two subsequent entries that were not taken were too. But, for now, my trade frequency guards against this type of quick-fire trading. I'd rather miss those entries than take 2-3 losses in quick succession and ruin things going forwards.
Somewhat incidentally, I also had an order for a short on the books at 560.5 just before 2am. The fact that it reached 560 then fell away bothered me a bit and that's another reason why I need to refrain from high frequency trading at this time.
As covered on the above charts, I basically waited for a confirmation of a lower time-frame setup on a weaker larger time-frame setup (see hourly for why I thought it was weak).
This time I was the one who got trapped as the following price action pivoted nicely off of the two ZoA before breaking above the important 560 area.
The trade was within my trade plan guidelines. The two subsequent entries that were not taken were too. But, for now, my trade frequency guards against this type of quick-fire trading. I'd rather miss those entries than take 2-3 losses in quick succession and ruin things going forwards.
Somewhat incidentally, I also had an order for a short on the books at 560.5 just before 2am. The fact that it reached 560 then fell away bothered me a bit and that's another reason why I need to refrain from high frequency trading at this time.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Activity Around Bar Closes- Pt 2
Another example of how AABC can be used in conjunction with a bias &/or method for added confirmation/conviction.
The pattern to go short was against the failure of the one to go long (see 1 min chart). It had some internal price action which made the pattern slightly weaker but the overall picture was strong. It very nearly got my stop but I would have got back in anyway given the scenario.
Price got above the 590 action zone (where the two patterns meet...no horizontal line on the chart) then wondered up into the close leaving the Bullish Harami behind. My bias was short at the time. A strong trigger of the hourly reversal would negate that bias. A trigger and immediate reversal meant trapped longs. Especially as it occurred at the turn of the hour.
The false trigger of the two-candled (word?!) reversal, with the context of the bigger picture and timing of the setup, created a continuation pattern.
Noticing these kind of situations real-time allows you to run that winner a little further or, if you happened to be on the other side of the trade, manage your money a bit better- i.e take off contracts, move stops or just exit the trade.
Price got above the 590 action zone (where the two patterns meet...no horizontal line on the chart) then wondered up into the close leaving the Bullish Harami behind. My bias was short at the time. A strong trigger of the hourly reversal would negate that bias. A trigger and immediate reversal meant trapped longs. Especially as it occurred at the turn of the hour.
The false trigger of the two-candled (word?!) reversal, with the context of the bigger picture and timing of the setup, created a continuation pattern.
Noticing these kind of situations real-time allows you to run that winner a little further or, if you happened to be on the other side of the trade, manage your money a bit better- i.e take off contracts, move stops or just exit the trade.
Monday, September 3, 2012
Activity Around Bar Closes
Profits would be nice, but my main goal is just to keep the account moving without doing too much damage in the infancy of my return to live trading.
So far, I haven't noticed any discernible drop off in my trading volume (which would be a dead giveaway that FEAR is raising it's ugly head). At least not since moving to the live account. August as a whole has seen lighter personal trading due to holiday volume and me being half present while enjoying the summer season.
Back to the title. Here are the hourly and 1 min charts from the first trade of the week.
I won't go into the details of the trade as that's not the point of this post (there are enough notes and doodles on the chart to get a good idea anyway).
Instead, I want to focus on the price action around the turn of the hour. It fell through my pattern, held the "Zone of Action" (< where a prior situation occurred) then fired away from there after breaking the low of the hammer by a tick. That hammer was also the low of the weak hourly close, which happened after the break-down, marked with the white arrow on the above hourly chart.
The market drove prices down to a significant level and then moved up away from that level with speed right at the turn of the hour. This, to me, was a clear indication of a pending up move as we now had trapped shorts liquidating.
I could have played it better by taking off my usual ~ 1R gain then repositioning when it came back down to those lows on lower pace. Final target was 583, which has just about been hit at the time of writing.
So far, I haven't noticed any discernible drop off in my trading volume (which would be a dead giveaway that FEAR is raising it's ugly head). At least not since moving to the live account. August as a whole has seen lighter personal trading due to holiday volume and me being half present while enjoying the summer season.
Back to the title. Here are the hourly and 1 min charts from the first trade of the week.
I won't go into the details of the trade as that's not the point of this post (there are enough notes and doodles on the chart to get a good idea anyway).
Instead, I want to focus on the price action around the turn of the hour. It fell through my pattern, held the "Zone of Action" (< where a prior situation occurred) then fired away from there after breaking the low of the hammer by a tick. That hammer was also the low of the weak hourly close, which happened after the break-down, marked with the white arrow on the above hourly chart.
The market drove prices down to a significant level and then moved up away from that level with speed right at the turn of the hour. This, to me, was a clear indication of a pending up move as we now had trapped shorts liquidating.
I could have played it better by taking off my usual ~ 1R gain then repositioning when it came back down to those lows on lower pace. Final target was 583, which has just about been hit at the time of writing.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Negative Gains.
Once again, another marginally profitable week. No obvious errors. So I'm avoiding the seductive forces of Outcome Bias and declaring this week a good one.
So many people are focused on "making money"- busy comparing pip totals with the next person, or their personal goals. I've learned, through trial and error, that you can't force or expect the market to do anything for you in any one trade. Trying to do so dismantles any edge you might have. The best we can hope for is a statistical probability over numerous interactions with the market.
With that in mind, I do my best to place my focus squarely on risk management, on trying to lose as little as possible when things aren't going my way, because that's how we stay afloat for the times when making money comes "easily".
How will I feel if I lose this trade? Will it throw my subsequent decisions off track thereby making it unwise to continue trading? Those are the types of question I ask myself to control my emotional risk. Especially important for Discretionary Trading.
When you don't lose money, you gain what you didn't lose. So congratulate yourself for that loss that didn't occur! It results in the same positive change in equity as a gain of the equivalent size. The same idea is also true for the age-old trader vice of needing to do something. I've found that a simple change in choice of words/thoughts does the trick: instead of saying, "I'm not doing anything" try "I'm doing nothing". That way, you make it an active choice to exercise a passive action.
"Don't just do something, sit there!" ;)
So many people are focused on "making money"- busy comparing pip totals with the next person, or their personal goals. I've learned, through trial and error, that you can't force or expect the market to do anything for you in any one trade. Trying to do so dismantles any edge you might have. The best we can hope for is a statistical probability over numerous interactions with the market.
With that in mind, I do my best to place my focus squarely on risk management, on trying to lose as little as possible when things aren't going my way, because that's how we stay afloat for the times when making money comes "easily".
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You can't sail if you sink! |
How will I feel if I lose this trade? Will it throw my subsequent decisions off track thereby making it unwise to continue trading? Those are the types of question I ask myself to control my emotional risk. Especially important for Discretionary Trading.
When you don't lose money, you gain what you didn't lose. So congratulate yourself for that loss that didn't occur! It results in the same positive change in equity as a gain of the equivalent size. The same idea is also true for the age-old trader vice of needing to do something. I've found that a simple change in choice of words/thoughts does the trick: instead of saying, "I'm not doing anything" try "I'm doing nothing". That way, you make it an active choice to exercise a passive action.
"Don't just do something, sit there!" ;)
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Notting Hill Carnival!
I'm in London with the family for a few days to enjoy the Carnival and generally relax with family and friends. However, I just wanted to bring some closure to this week's trading as I was still in the market 10 mins before flying out the door to catch the plane on Friday and, therefore, didn't have the time to do my weekly wrap up (as much for freeing up my mind for the weekend as it is for data-keeping purposes!).
This week was a bit of a special one as it marked my return to live trading! 1 year, 7 months and 6 days after my last live trade at the beginning of 2011.
The week ended profitably overall as well as in each individual account (SIM and Live) albeit by a small amount.
It's a good thing I took my time building confidence and collecting the data because the transition from SIM to Live was as painless as it could be for me, given the fear I've experienced in the past. It was also a great idea to use the size that I intended to use when returning to the live account in SIM. An even better idea might be to use a larger size in SIM so you reduce the fear factor even more by seeing smaller numbers flashing around whilst using real funds.
Will be back in my office on Tuesday and, after wrapping up with this week's review, back to looking for my usual opportunities. Curious to see if my forward-tested results will continue to play out with live trades (I've already had a taste of the difference in fills when one of my trades had it's trailing stop triggered while the market was 15 pips away from the trigger price....two rogue trades with size were responsible for that one as the market re-opened after it's daily 15 min break- something that may not have happened with SIM.)
This week was a bit of a special one as it marked my return to live trading! 1 year, 7 months and 6 days after my last live trade at the beginning of 2011.
The week ended profitably overall as well as in each individual account (SIM and Live) albeit by a small amount.
It's a good thing I took my time building confidence and collecting the data because the transition from SIM to Live was as painless as it could be for me, given the fear I've experienced in the past. It was also a great idea to use the size that I intended to use when returning to the live account in SIM. An even better idea might be to use a larger size in SIM so you reduce the fear factor even more by seeing smaller numbers flashing around whilst using real funds.
Will be back in my office on Tuesday and, after wrapping up with this week's review, back to looking for my usual opportunities. Curious to see if my forward-tested results will continue to play out with live trades (I've already had a taste of the difference in fills when one of my trades had it's trailing stop triggered while the market was 15 pips away from the trigger price....two rogue trades with size were responsible for that one as the market re-opened after it's daily 15 min break- something that may not have happened with SIM.)
Monday, August 20, 2012
Appendix- Common Variation.
The recent post, "The Mighty Appendix!", goes through the basic attributes of the pattern- The Momo Reversal with failure, "V" turn off of Support/Resistance back into the Momo and then "sign of reversal" at the original action zone of the pattern. (see JPEG within that post.)
I call it the "Appendix" because the price deviates from it's path (in this case the Momo, but the concept can be applied to any pattern) before returning. The rogue price action is pinched in a way that makes it stand out from the established PA...much like an Appendix from the small intestine! But I digress...
Sometimes, this "pinched" PA can occur before the culmination of the Momo Reversal, as in the above example. I've drawn in the PA in yellow...
The same principles apply for both variations of the pattern. Regardless of where the deviation occurs, it either allows a Momo to eventually hold, despite a strong-paced move into S/R or tags an important S/R when the Momo forms "too early".
Recognising the pattern (takes practice!) isn't enough. You also have to look at the context of the pattern. Otherwise, you won't know whether to take the original Momo or wait for an Appendix/Pattern Fail (More on the latter...later).
I call it the "Appendix" because the price deviates from it's path (in this case the Momo, but the concept can be applied to any pattern) before returning. The rogue price action is pinched in a way that makes it stand out from the established PA...much like an Appendix from the small intestine! But I digress...
Sometimes, this "pinched" PA can occur before the culmination of the Momo Reversal, as in the above example. I've drawn in the PA in yellow...
The same principles apply for both variations of the pattern. Regardless of where the deviation occurs, it either allows a Momo to eventually hold, despite a strong-paced move into S/R or tags an important S/R when the Momo forms "too early".
Recognising the pattern (takes practice!) isn't enough. You also have to look at the context of the pattern. Otherwise, you won't know whether to take the original Momo or wait for an Appendix/Pattern Fail (More on the latter...later).
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Thursday, August 16, 2012
The Mighty Appendix!
This is one of the three set-ups I use to trade the Eur/Usd everyday. The First Post of this blog showed the beginnings of what would eventually become the "Appendix".
It's basically a combination of two patterns: Pipe Bottom and the Momo Reversal (of which you can find many examples here by using "Search This Blog" on the right. Then F3, type in "Momo Reversal", highlight text and then it will be easier to pick out amongst the posts).
On the above 1 min chart of today's Eur/Usd action, the Momo Reversal is the three-legged move down- the last two are in the descending wedge. You can see pace turning bullish with each downside move. Then it breaks down, forming longer bars compared to the ones prior to the break and triggers stops as longs are caught by surprise and new shorts get on board.
Then price returns, and surpasses, the break down point just as quickly as it broke. Making a "flush" or "pipe bottom" formation. Now the people who are short are trapped and the final piece of the puzzle comes when a "sign of a reversal" appears where the original Momo Reversal should have held if it was going to be successful in the first place. It connects with prior price action as if the breakdown didn't even happen. Now the shorts liquidate and the old buyers get back in along with any new ones.
The above hourly chart shows where the original Momo was forming (thin yellow line) and where the Appendix exhausted itself into "significant support". The thick yellow line. This chart also shows the measured move 1-2 as compared to 3-4. It doesn't show the uptrend line that was providing support at 4, visible on a larger view of the hourly.
"But how do you know when to play the actual Momo or wait for a potential Appendix?" You may ask.
That's a (long) topic for future posts. :)
It's basically a combination of two patterns: Pipe Bottom and the Momo Reversal (of which you can find many examples here by using "Search This Blog" on the right. Then F3, type in "Momo Reversal", highlight text and then it will be easier to pick out amongst the posts).
On the above 1 min chart of today's Eur/Usd action, the Momo Reversal is the three-legged move down- the last two are in the descending wedge. You can see pace turning bullish with each downside move. Then it breaks down, forming longer bars compared to the ones prior to the break and triggers stops as longs are caught by surprise and new shorts get on board.
Then price returns, and surpasses, the break down point just as quickly as it broke. Making a "flush" or "pipe bottom" formation. Now the people who are short are trapped and the final piece of the puzzle comes when a "sign of a reversal" appears where the original Momo Reversal should have held if it was going to be successful in the first place. It connects with prior price action as if the breakdown didn't even happen. Now the shorts liquidate and the old buyers get back in along with any new ones.
The above hourly chart shows where the original Momo was forming (thin yellow line) and where the Appendix exhausted itself into "significant support". The thick yellow line. This chart also shows the measured move 1-2 as compared to 3-4. It doesn't show the uptrend line that was providing support at 4, visible on a larger view of the hourly.
"But how do you know when to play the actual Momo or wait for a potential Appendix?" You may ask.
That's a (long) topic for future posts. :)
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Discretionary Trading- A Different Set Of Rules.
We often hear that we should "trade the system", "take every trade"...that the last trade has no bearing on the prior trade etc etc.
But that isn't the case with Discretionary Trading.
"Judgement" is the keyword. I'm pretty sure most would agree that our judgement is easily influenced by how we feel. Binge eating/drinking, driving under the influence, incidence of higher suicide rates around holidays...these are all examples of where people may feel they are making rational decisions but are, in fact, making judgements based on emotion rather than fact.
So, it then follows that trading in a discretionary manner, even around a pretty objective framework, will always be subject to your feelings/emotions. If there is any room to maneuver within the approach, it will always be in the least favorable direction unless a close eye is kept on how you feel.
Here are some of the things I keep in mind when trading with regards to the discretion involved in the method:
1) The length of time spent thinking about an idea doesn't increase the value of an idea.
2) Increasing trade frequency doesn't translate to a proportional increase in profits- the edge inherent in each trade changes dependent on your state of mind. Even if the set-ups are "the same".
3) What are your emotional triggers? Do you get irritable before you're about to throw the baby out with the bath water?? Do you fight the market when you're tired?? etc. Know your triggers and act on them.
4) Are you seeking the truth or trying to avoid being wrong?
I wish I could explain how important number 4) has been to me!
There are many more ideas, but the goal is the same; to flat-line the waves of Personal Variance which always cancel any positive edge your analysis might have (and you don't need much of the latter in the absence of the former...).
But that isn't the case with Discretionary Trading.
"Discretionary-Available at one's discretion; able to be used as one chooses; left to or regulated by one's own discretion or judgement."
"Judgement" is the keyword. I'm pretty sure most would agree that our judgement is easily influenced by how we feel. Binge eating/drinking, driving under the influence, incidence of higher suicide rates around holidays...these are all examples of where people may feel they are making rational decisions but are, in fact, making judgements based on emotion rather than fact.
So, it then follows that trading in a discretionary manner, even around a pretty objective framework, will always be subject to your feelings/emotions. If there is any room to maneuver within the approach, it will always be in the least favorable direction unless a close eye is kept on how you feel.
Here are some of the things I keep in mind when trading with regards to the discretion involved in the method:
1) The length of time spent thinking about an idea doesn't increase the value of an idea.
2) Increasing trade frequency doesn't translate to a proportional increase in profits- the edge inherent in each trade changes dependent on your state of mind. Even if the set-ups are "the same".
3) What are your emotional triggers? Do you get irritable before you're about to throw the baby out with the bath water?? Do you fight the market when you're tired?? etc. Know your triggers and act on them.
4) Are you seeking the truth or trying to avoid being wrong?
I wish I could explain how important number 4) has been to me!
There are many more ideas, but the goal is the same; to flat-line the waves of Personal Variance which always cancel any positive edge your analysis might have (and you don't need much of the latter in the absence of the former...).
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Consistent Profitability.
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Years In The Making! |
Wasn't sure when I'd be writing this post as a form of documentation for future reference but, here it is!
After my fall from grace in late 2007, and my subsequent short-lived period of success at the beginning of 2009 (captured in this blog's first posts..), it was a huge 3-year struggle to try and fit the pieces of the trading puzzle together.
Many helped along the way- both passively and actively- but a special mention must go to L & W . Aside from keeping me company and being a source of "optimistic practicality" , he helped me to realise the true importance of record keeping and reinforced the concept of "nudging probabilities" in your favour.
Now I, too, have a "security blanket" in the form of data! ;)
Finally, there's good reason to return to the live account, with personal expectations truly in check.
And a pretty solid plan.
Let's see how it goes in the coming months.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
1000 + 1 Voices- White Noise & ADHD.
So an interesting thing happened to me the week before last. The heat sink on my computers' motherboard fan had dried, inefficient paste on it (used to carry heat from the board to the fan...or something like that. Complete computer novice here!)...this meant that the fan was going full blast and was quite a nuisance.
Add to that the fact that it's 38C here in Italy and, therefore, I also have another fan running to cool me down and you can imagine what I had to put up with.
That was also my second best week of trading... ever.
Perplexed by this outcome, I started digging around for reasons why the noise of a fan may actually have helped me in my trading endeavors. The result was shocking.
http://www.howstuffworks.com/question47.htm
The above link is the simplest definition of White Noise that I could find. Coupled with the section entitled "applications" in this link, it's not too difficult to see that the potential benefits of using this type of therapy, perhaps by using a site like simplynoise- or just by leaving a fan on- could be far reaching and extremely beneficial.
Incidentally, ADHD, or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, is reportedly able to be controlled/reduced by the use of white noise.
The fact that white noise eliminates distraction by making the intruding noise (or voice-in-your-head) part of an indiscernible whole, makes this a brilliant tool for a trader fighting to get out of his/her own way and trade without that negative self-talk that often plagues us.
Add to that the fact that it's 38C here in Italy and, therefore, I also have another fan running to cool me down and you can imagine what I had to put up with.
That was also my second best week of trading... ever.
Perplexed by this outcome, I started digging around for reasons why the noise of a fan may actually have helped me in my trading endeavors. The result was shocking.
http://www.howstuffworks.com/question47.htm
The above link is the simplest definition of White Noise that I could find. Coupled with the section entitled "applications" in this link, it's not too difficult to see that the potential benefits of using this type of therapy, perhaps by using a site like simplynoise- or just by leaving a fan on- could be far reaching and extremely beneficial.
Incidentally, ADHD, or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, is reportedly able to be controlled/reduced by the use of white noise.
The fact that white noise eliminates distraction by making the intruding noise (or voice-in-your-head) part of an indiscernible whole, makes this a brilliant tool for a trader fighting to get out of his/her own way and trade without that negative self-talk that often plagues us.
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Police As Traders?
These traders are mobile- so they need a car. This gets them to their trade location (more on that in a bit). Speed Radar, Pallets and a Police Radio to check out licenses/insurance etc.
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Passive aggression: They don't do it to us, WE do it to ourselves. |
Time and the officer's hourly pay.
Reward:
Speed fines and fines in general.
Methodology:
(for speed, we'll assume long trades only..)
They find their edge by waiting at that spot on a road where a drastic change in speed limit occurs. They'll hide just before the "resistance"- point of change- in anticipation of a breakout. Odds increase if they do this during rush hour as they know drivers will anticipate the change and try and get ahead due to sheer haste/impatience.
Another method they commonly use is sitting themselves at the bottom of a hill- people tend to forgo controlling their speed and let gravity get the better of them! This could be viewed as Momentum trading- a body in motion, "stays in motion until an equal and opposite force acts on it" (your will to be the captain of your situation).
Win Rate:
They can increase this simply by compounding the above methodologies- for example, waiting at the bottom of the hill, during rush hour where a speed change occurs from fast to slow. Do this all on a pre-holiday workday and....
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Cost Reduction

Working out a lot better in this kind of environment. The Trigger Chart has gone from Trending and Quiet to Trending and Volatile. This means getting chopped out of moves (via trailing stop..) which would have otherwise returned good R:R without taking out the original stop.
Autumn trading seems to allow for more volatility-based trading when using my strategy although I'd dare say that that's probably the case for most strategies. Now I'm turning to more of a destination-oriented approach.
So leaving the stop alone and gunning for a moving, but decent, target relative to risk is what I'll be doing until the market says otherwise...the space in the middle is of no importance to me.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
The End Of Week Affect??
I've just (12/02/12) finished updating my Spread Sheet to include a DOW ("Day Of Week") function. It's been on my list of things to do for a while but the last couple of weeks' results encouraged me to do it sooner rather than later.
The hypothesis is that I'm giving back money/under-performing at the end of the week. This has been especially evident these past couple of weeks, but I wanted to find out if the data added any weight to this idea...
What did I find?


The above charts are all derived from my trades year-to-date. The first chart represents all trades taken between- and including- Monday (Sunday evening..) and Wednesday. The second shows what the equity curve looks like if we use trades taken on a Thursday and Friday. Finally, we have the actual equity curve.
I've marked off two arbitrary dollar values, +$X and -$X, to give context as the scaling of the charts isn't the same and, without those reference points, it'd be impossible to make any comparisons (as dollar values have been removed).
A few facts:
* 17.2% of Nov profits came from Thur and Fri, under-performing the random 40%.
*30% of Dec losses came from Thur and Fri, out-performing the random 40% (ie losing less).
* 66% of YTD's Mon-Wed profits have been lost between Thu and Fri.
So, it would appear that when doing very well I make less at the end of the week. When doing well, I lose and, when losing, I actually do better at the end of the week.
There are a load of potential psychological reasons for these tendencies, but what's most important is how I circumvent this to further sharpen the edge. As far as solutions go, an obvious one is simple to trade more at the beginning of the week than at the end. But I'm tackling one issue at a time so it'll have to get in line for now!
Will collect more data and make any adjustments in the not-too-distant future should it continue to show me this pattern.
The hypothesis is that I'm giving back money/under-performing at the end of the week. This has been especially evident these past couple of weeks, but I wanted to find out if the data added any weight to this idea...
What did I find?



I've marked off two arbitrary dollar values, +$X and -$X, to give context as the scaling of the charts isn't the same and, without those reference points, it'd be impossible to make any comparisons (as dollar values have been removed).
A few facts:
* 17.2% of Nov profits came from Thur and Fri, under-performing the random 40%.
*30% of Dec losses came from Thur and Fri, out-performing the random 40% (ie losing less).
* 66% of YTD's Mon-Wed profits have been lost between Thu and Fri.
So, it would appear that when doing very well I make less at the end of the week. When doing well, I lose and, when losing, I actually do better at the end of the week.
There are a load of potential psychological reasons for these tendencies, but what's most important is how I circumvent this to further sharpen the edge. As far as solutions go, an obvious one is simple to trade more at the beginning of the week than at the end. But I'm tackling one issue at a time so it'll have to get in line for now!
Will collect more data and make any adjustments in the not-too-distant future should it continue to show me this pattern.
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