GBP/USD- couldn't resist!

Said to myself that I was done with trading for the next 8 hours (so I can sleep!) jumped out of bed "just to check" what was going on with GBP, having noticed it forming the second pullback of a potential momo reversal into hourly resistance. The scenario played itself out and had triggered moments before I had the chart up on the screen.

Stuck to my rules regarding trading whilst tired and paper traded the setup- just to mark the setup in my mind and for a little decision making practice. Besides, had I have been ready to trade live, I'd have passed as the optimal entry point had gone. Entry 1.38980 Exit 1.38810, Entry 1.38850 Exit 1.38670.

Now I'm definately going to bed!

Mini Gold- 13:00ET

First time trading this instrument. Been watching GC, the standard sized Gold Futures Contract, for awhile and decided that I've grown to understand the way it behaves and that it was time to trade it. Albeit using it's smaller counterpart, YG....

First trade in awhile where I feel I've maximized the opportunity available to me according to my abilities and limitations. Entry 913.20, Exit 909.40 for more than 3x my risk.

That puts me back on track after last week's loss-riddled trading...

GBP/USD- lesson not learned...yet ;)

Very similar scenario to the First Trade Of The Month....good entry, good trailing stop...but there's always, what I call, an intermediate first support/resistance where stops should be tightened/an exit should be made.

There was such an area into 1.37200. I noticed it but insisted of trailing the stop in the same manner.

Burns to give back 62% (Incidentally, I've noticed that I've given back that amount at least once before. There's something to be said about giving back a fibonnaci percentage...will look into that)

Scratch...just before the move.

Found this JPY/USD momo on the fly whilst watching another potential setup.

The resistance I was looking at on the hourly chart hadn't been hit solidly. A more solid test would have to wick above the pattern highs so I wasn't willing to let the momentum slow on me as the pullbacks can be brutal at this hour (after 23:00ET) I took the trade off at the first minor support which, when combined with the spread and the size of the pattern, meant 2 ticks.

YM loss- Fri 6th March

Another frustrating loss as I struggle to adjust to the market chop. Patterns are more difficult to decipher and so they require probing rather than the one shot, one kill approach that I'm used to....simple adjustment to make but I've been stubborn/impatient....

The idea was one I had been tracking from 5 hours beforehand thanks to a heads up from Kevin's friday Ezeetrader Update...when I later saw a momo reversal developing down at the lows of the hourly channel, I started looking for my entry.

The intraday chart tells the story...

At The Mercy Of The Market

Took a 3 tick gain in JPY/USD but in the most dangerous way. Allowed the trade to go too far against me as I couldn't accept the loss...was down as much as 16 ticks...

Could have waited for a better entry but would have gone against me by several ticks anyway. Now that my entries have lost some of their edge, I'll be treading carefully in order to limit damage. Got to be prepared to miss setups in order to get precision entries again...

Disaster

Costly slip in maintaining the correct mindset. Took a 25 point loss in the YM...

It was a decent setup intraday except all I used for larger timeframe support (as you have to go way back to the left of the chart to find price support) was a Fib Extention- I don't remember which one but I never use them anyway so had no business being in the trade. Once in, however, I failed to pull the plug quick enough as price took a nose dive the instant I bought. Tried to wait for a bounce etc.

Complete lapse of trading discipline.

YM, Australian Dollar & Crude-09:00ET

Traded the YM according to my revised approach...good execution there.

I was watching CLJ9, the APR09 Crude Futures Contract, and AUD/USD for the same trigger, but wasn't able to manage more than the one. Especially as I now need to keep a closer eye on price action to try to maximize the shorter term gains...

Who Moved MY Cheese??

I find myself asking the same question as the bestselling book. I've seen multiple points disappear on almost every trade I've taken of late. Today, I entered the EUR/USD three times. 12,9 & 13 points were available on the 1st, 2nd & 3rd attempts respectively. My grand total was 4. 4 out of 34 available points lol.

So now we have chop, even on the 1min chart, coming out of this pattern. I'll need to go for smaller scalp moves into micro-support/resistance , keeping the entries tight and being willing to re-enter as part of a multiple-entry trade.

Luckily, up until now, entries have been my strong point and I'm able to identify the micro support/resistance zones...

All that's left is for me to move with the cheese.

NQ scalp

First trade after my own personal Black Monday...would have liked to get more out of it but I'll be happy with the 2.25R/point scalp...

I did get as much as 6R/points up in the trade but, as seems to be the case more frequently recently, there was no logical way to lock in profits other than to exit the trade. This, of course, would have been a knee-jerk, emotional exit.

I was originally expecting a retest of highs, however, as the pace of the move into the 1116.75 highs was strong, increasing the probability that a corrective move would form to allow for any potentially stronger follow through...what threw me was the breakout and pullback to the pattern followed by long red candles. This kept me from looking for support to exit at.

Not reading this market like I have been in recent weeks...giving back too much paper profits too often.

Mental Drawdown

Taken two losses, one in the usually well-behaved GBP/USD and one in the CAD/USD which, if my memory serves me right, I've never traded.

CAD/USD- The case for taking the trade was weakened when the pace of the 2nd correction slowed to the upside. I decided to take it anyway. 10 tick loss there...

GBP/USD- Much better combination of supports on the larger timeframes for this one. Only intraday con I can find is that the shape is not quite as skewed as I'd usually like it to be...12 tick loss there.

Using this pattern (perhaps like using any other) requires an element of discretion even if I have rules for entries, stops etc. Until now, I've usually been very selective in what I'll trade but I feel that I may have been somewhat nonchalant in the last two trades, perhaps due to pushing the boundaries in pattern recognition with Yesterday's trade...the fact that this is the first time I've had two losers in one session and that they didn't come close to calling a market reversal even in the short term (that's happened very few times this year) suggests I could be in a hurry and, as such, have considered things I would have rejected before.

So I'm pulling in the reins again and waiting for the quality setups that I'm used to.

* UPDATE * Took another setup in the NQ into the 13:30ET correction period. Fantastic setup but, unfortunately, got shaken out at the days low! That ends my day from hell :)

GBP/USD- final exit review.

So March is off to an early start with a trade in GBP/USD at 18:33ET. An hour and a half into the month- only managed 10 pips out of the 22 which was available to me. At first, I put the inefficient locking in of profits down to the low volume environment that I've always avoided (hence two of the five missed trades in February).

While the comparatively erractic price movement and enormous spreads didn't help, it didn't actually cause the inefficiency... it just highlighted one which has always been there...

Basically, my modus operandi is to trail stops until stopped out....while this has worked very well so far(ie I'm making money!) there's a simple adjustment that can be made to capture more of the initial move out of the pattern- too often I'm giving back large amounts of it, up to 60% (as mentioned before, there's usually alot more follow through than the "initial move" but I'll tackle that after first maximizing what I'm already doing)

It's something I've been doing on occasion, in some form or another. Whether it was moving up the stop prematurely (for example, off the top of my head, on the 17th Feb trade in London) or just simply exiting before getting stopped.

I felt I was "breaking the rules" even though it maximized gains- now I need to make it a rule!

So, from now on: If I find myself in a trade that has begun it's momentum move and it's approaching first resistance/support, I will tighten stops in anyway possible, ignoring usual procedure, in the first instance. If it stalls there I'll go ahead and exit. Will go through every Feb trade to reinforce that idea by looking at the times I did this and how results differ from when I didn't do this...won't take another trade 'till that's done!

Nevertheless, I'm happy with the start to the month as I stuck to the rules as they were and acted on past fears (ie trading during the evening, eastern time- night for me)

February Review/ March Gameplan

Having gone through february's numbers, along with the projections for future potential, a few areas of improvement stuck out. These will be where I direct my focus for March...they are:-

* "Missed" Trades- For various reasons, during February, I missed 5 trades...will look to get that number closer to ZERO in March...

* Errors- I only made TWO errors during February, but they were avoidable...will look to keep that number low.

Basically, my goal for March is to Continue as February- but more efficiently.Future efforts will look at, in order of attempt:-

2 Contracts- Trading exactly the same way...but with the addition of another contract.

Getting Back In On The Move- Allocating a certain percentage of banked profits to take an opportunity to jump back onboard.

2 Contracts...and run- Different ball game...exiting 1 contract where I'd usually be all out (be it with 1 contract, as I do now, or 2...as "2 Contracts" above) and then running the other to a larger target while limiting potential loss on that 2nd contract.

YM Chop @ Midday Reversal.

Nicely positioned reversal. Had my "managerial hat" on when I found this one as I was doing some end-of-month calculations...as a result, rushed the entry and got in short at 7169. High was 7178. This meant me getting stopped for breakeven instead of for a small profit...

The price activity out of the midday reversal had alot of chop- due to the pace going into the reversal being quite strong in addition to the shape of the momo reversal being more wedge-like instead of skewed...

Equal Moves And Q4 Preliminary GDP announcement.

Nice 3.75 point scalp out of the 08:30ET momo reversal in the NQ which coincided with the Q4 prel. GDP announcement....proof that news is built into price action...

While I'm happy with the my consistent approach and the frequency I'm able to take relatively small but meaningful profits out of the beginning of a trend move, it's time to review the last X amount of trades and see how I might have managed an extra contract...granted you don't always get subsequent moves of this magnitude (100mins after the trigger and the NQ is up 25 points!)but it definitely merits looking into!

Seems obvious that the trade off between what's lost on losing trades/trades that don't get further than the initial profit taking point would be worth the opportunity to take more of the gains which I'm currently leaving on the table...we'll see...

Slightly unusual trade in that there was no Pivot Support but two forms of measured or Equal Move Support, which is illustrated on the 30min chart. Caught it 4 ticks off lows with an 1108.25 entry- out at 1112.00